docs(steam): record the real onboarding state — a wait on Valve, not a task

The docs described Steamworks onboarding as pending work. It is pending VALVE: the partner account
exists, identity verification is under review, and the tax interview is in their queue with a quoted
turnaround of up to 30 business days. No app IDs are assigned, no store page exists, and Release
entitlement therefore still fails closed — by design.

Distribution.md §2 becomes a status table plus the critical path computed from Valve's own published
windows (30 business days verification → fee/app IDs → up to 12 business days store review → page
public ≥2 weeks before release → up to 12 business days build review). Earliest realistic launch:
early-to-mid February 2027, leaving ~7 weeks before the 2027-04-01 launch price ends.

Nothing in this blocks the code; commercial.md, TASKS 54 and HANDOFF now say so instead of implying
Steam is an outstanding coding task.

Distribution.md

@@ -62,19 +62,32 @@ on the partner dashboard — the dashboard's Downloads page only re-offers the S
 | Partner support | `help.steampowered.com/en/wizard/HelpWithPublishing` |
 | Steamworks.NET (managed wrapper) | `nuget.org/packages/Steamworks.NET` |
 
-1. **Steamworks account** → onboarding (NDA, identity, company details, tax interview, payout bank,
-   then the **$100 Steam Direct fee** per app). The store page cannot be configured before the fee.
-2. **App IDs.** One paid app and its associated free Demo. The Demo has its own App ID; it checks
-   ownership of the paid app with `BIsSubscribedApp(paidAppId)`.
-3. **Builds.** Keep one codebase. Steam gives the Demo a separate release checklist/build setup;
-   shared depots can avoid duplicating common files once the paid app is released.
-4. **Steamworks SDK.** `./scripts/steam-sdk.sh ~/Downloads/steamworks_sdk_165.zip` extracts
-   `steam_api64.dll` from `sdk/redistributable_bin/win64/` into `steam/` (gitignored) and stages
-   `steam_appid.txt` = 480 — Valve's Spacewar app, so `SteamAPI.Init()` works locally before
-   LlamaCasty has an App ID. Add `--contentbuilder` on the machine that uploads a depot. The csproj
-   copies the DLL **beside the exe** (`Link`) with `ExcludeFromSingleFile`, and copies
-   `steam_appid.txt` in Debug only — never into a depot. The managed side is the `Steamworks.NET`
-   package (`SteamApps.BIsSubscribedApp`).
+### Status (updated 2026-11-05 — this is a WAIT on Valve, not a task of ours)
+
+| Step | State |
+|---|---|
+| Partner account created | ✅ done by the creator |
+| Identity verification | ⏳ **pending** — Valve reviewing |
+| Tax interview | ⏳ submitted; Valve quotes **up to 30 business days** to review |
+| $100 Steam Direct fee (per app) | not yet — a store page cannot be configured before it |
+| App IDs (paid app + free Demo) | **not yet assigned** |
+| Store page | not created |
+| Build review | not started |
+
+**Critical path from 2026-11-05**, using Valve's own published windows:
+
+1. identity + tax review — up to **30 business days** (~6 calendar weeks) → mid-December
+2. fee paid, app IDs assigned, store page built and submitted
+3. store page review — **up to 12 business days** (Valve's current backlog; docs still say 3–5)
+4. page public **≥2 weeks before release** (Valve's rule)
+5. build review — **up to 12 business days**
+
+**Earliest realistic launch: early-to-mid February 2027.** The launch price ends 2027-04-01, so there
+is roughly seven weeks of buffer — *provided* verification clears in the window Valve quotes. If it
+slips, the promo date is the thing to move (see `docs/ai/commercial.md`), not the code.
+
+Nothing below can start until step 1 clears; none of it blocks the app work.
+
 5. **Store page** configured and made public **two weeks before release** — Valve's rule, and it is
    the window where wishlists accumulate.