diff --git a/HANDOFF.md b/HANDOFF.md
index d491b55..e877dec 100644
--- a/HANDOFF.md
+++ b/HANDOFF.md
@@ -1,20 +1,21 @@
-# HANDOFF — 2026-09-26 (TASK 47 shipping crash + the "nothing in the box" void both fixed; 3 local commits, NOT pushed)
+# HANDOFF — 2026-09-26 (TASK 47: crash + silent-void + video-pacing all fixed; 4 local commits, NOT pushed)
 
 ## Branch / Commit State
 
-`main` — three local commits ahead of `origin/main` (= `ecb329e`), **NOT pushed** (awaiting the
+`main` — four local commits ahead of `origin/main` (= `ecb329e`), **NOT pushed** (awaiting the
 creator's go / milestone signal):
 
 1. `a11b15e` — **TASK 47** alert box video (built-in/custom clip + read-time fade + message
    ticker + unity audio) + `AlertLayerVideoTests` (fake decoder, 0 warnings, 319/319 green).
 2. `7b940b6` — **crash fix**: AlertOverlayLayer marshals the chat-poller seam to the UI thread
-   (regression test red pre-fix / green post-fix, both verified). Full suite 320/320.
-3. *(uncommitted next — this session)* — **silent-decoder fallback + diagnostics** (see below),
-   scope: `Services/AlertOverlayLayer.cs`, `Services/AlertClipDecoder.cs`,
-   `ytLive.Tests/AlertLayerVideoTests.cs` + docs (task-47 addendum, `MyMistakes.md` lesson, this
-   file). New Good Dog test green; build 0 warnings; full suite 321 with the **known env flake**
-   (RealMouseDrag reorder failing while windows are up — passes with the desktop clean; unrelated
-   to this change). `scope-check.sh` pending, then commit.
+   (regression test red pre-fix / green post-fix). Full suite 320/320.
+3. `80038ff` — **silent-decoder fallback + diagnostics** (no-frame grace 1.0s → six-animation;
+   BeginClip/RunAsync logging). Full suite 321 with the **known env flake** (RealMouseDrag
+   reorder failing while windows are up).
+4. *(uncommitted next — this session)* — **video pacing fix** (below). Scope:
+   `ViewModels/MainViewModel.Chat.cs`, `ytLive.Tests/AlertClipDecoderTests.cs` (new), docs
+   (task-47 addendum, `MyMistakes.md`, this file). Test green; build 0 warnings;
+   `scope-check.sh` pending, then commit.
 
 ## ✅ Crash fixed (`7b940b6`)
 
@@ -26,41 +27,53 @@ UI-thread marshal (`ChatOverlayLayer` has one); it ran `RefreshAlertPreviews` 
 the MTA poller thread and stamped `alertBox.VideoImageSource` (INPC + WPF-bound) with a
 WriteableBitmap created there. Fix + Good Dog regression test
 `OnMessageReceived_FromPollerThread_MarshalsPreviewWritesToTheUiThread` (red/green verified).
-`MyMistakes.md`: every INPC-raising seam fed by the poller must marshal WPF-object writes.
 
-## ⚠️ The "nothing in the alert box" void — diagnosed + fixed (this unit)
+## ✅ "Nothing in the alert box" void — fixed (`80038ff`)
 
-After the crash fix the creator reported: On-Air → test → **remove and re-add** the Stream Alerts
-layer → TEST event → procs in the chat windows but **nothing in the alert box**. startup.log 11:44:
-`peakMix 0.105` (no alert audio) vs 11:21's 0.375–0.891. No exception anywhere — every stage of the
-clip path was silent by design (`UpdatePreview` catch = `Debug.WriteLine`-only; `RunAsync` bare
-`catch { }` firing `Completed` regardless). Established the guaranteed-invisible fail: a decoder
-whose `Start()` succeeds but yields **no frames AND no audio** leaves `_clip != null` with
-`_latestClipFrame == null` → `RenderClipFrame` returns null forever → box transparent FOREVER; the
-six-animation fallback only ran on setup-time throws. (Hunted & ruled out meanwhile: `LiveScene` is
-never assigned — the encoder always renders `StagedScene` (MainViewModel.cs:323), so the re-added
-box IS in the render graph; the bake invalidates per element on add; DB row
-`c85b46ac-…` X=602 Y=26 680×200 healthy; pinned ffmpeg decodes the default clip to `scale=680:200`
-rawvideo correctly to a file. Frame pacing silently off too: no probe → `frameDuration=0`.)
+After the crash fix: On-Air → test → **remove and re-add** the Stream Alerts layer → TEST event →
+procs in chat but **nothing in the alert box**. startup.log 11:44 `peakMix 0.105` (no alert audio)
+vs 11:21's 0.375–0.891. Every stage of the clip path was silent by design; a decoder whose `Start()`
+succeeds but yields **no frames AND no audio** left `_clip != null` with `_latestClipFrame == null`
+→ blank box forever. Fix: no-frame grace (1.0s) in `AlertOverlayLayer.Advance` → tear down + same
+alert as six-animation; BeginClip/RunAsync diagnostics stop the silence. Good Dog:
+`SilentDecoder_FallsBackToTheAnimationAfterTheNoFrameGrace`.
 
-**Fix (uncommitted):** `AlertOverlayLayer.Advance` — a started clip that produced neither a frame
-nor an audio chunk inside `NoFrameFallbackSeconds` (1.0 s) is torn down, `_elapsed` resets, and the
-SAME alert continues as the six-animation render (never blank, never drained early).
-Diagnostics: `BeginClip` logs box id / resolved path / size + setup failure; `AlertClipDecoder.RunAsync`
-logs frame/chunk end-state + the swallowed exception. Good Dog test
-`SilentDecoder_FallsBackToTheAnimationAfterTheNoFrameGrace`: transparent inside the grace →
-decoder disposed past it → animation renders → drains to idle. `MyMistakes.md`: an alert that plays
-is a promise — degrade on dead-air, and a `catch` hiding WHY output vanished is a lie.
+## ✅ "No video plays" — decoder HEALTHY, video UNPACED — fixed (this unit)
+
+Creator repro after `80038ff` (12:35 session): still "no video plays in the web-alert box", "like
+you lost the video" — but the new diagnostics PROVED the decoder healthy: `Alert clip start: box …`
+→ `Alert clip end: … frames=240 audioChunks=156 failed=False` twice, alert audio in the live mix
+(`peakMix 0.277 → 0.733`, mic/loop 0.000). Root cause was **pacing, never decode**:
+`AlertClipDecoderFor` (MainViewModel.Chat.cs:113) built the decoder with **no frame-rate probe** →
+`RunAsync` computed `frameDuration = TimeSpan.Zero` → `RunVideoAsync`'s pace step
+(`if (frameDuration > 0)`) was dead code → all 240 frames of the 10s clip dumped through the pipe
+in the first ~1-2s (130MB as fast as ffmpeg read), then the box sat frozen on the LAST frame while
+the audio pipeline paced 156 chunks at real-time ~7.8s. Reading exactly like "no video / you lost
+it". The media path already had the seam wired (`MediaVideoSource` gets
+`frameRateProbe: new FfmpegFrameRateProbe(…)`, MainViewModel.cs:308) — the alert factory just
+never passed one.
+
+**Fix (uncommitted):** `AlertClipDecoderFor` passes
+`frameRateProbe: new FfmpegFrameRateProbe(new FfmpegLocator(), () => new FfmpegDecodeProcess())` so
+video paces at the clip's native ~24fps (10s real-time) in lockstep with audio. Good Dog test
+`AlertClipDecoderTests.AlertClipDecoder_PacesVideoFramesToTheProbedFrameRate` drives the REAL
+`AlertClipDecoder` through the media-style fake process + fake probe + recorded delay seam
+(3 frames at 100fps → one ~10ms delay per frame; red on the old factory, green now). Full suite
+321/322 (one known-env flake). `MyMistakes.md`: **a decoder that drops data faster than wall-clock
+looks identical to a dead decoder on screen — "plays but you don't see it" is a PACING bug before
+it's a decode bug.** Rules: never ship a pipe whose `frameDuration` can be zero; check pacing
+(bytes/s vs wall-clock) before re-auditing the codec.
 
 ## Follow-ups queued (NOT done in this unit)
 
 - **TASK 3 item 20 persistence half** — canonical `RewardEvents` SQLite table +
   `superChatEvents.list` (30-day) backfill + session-report rollup (still in-memory only).
 - TASK 3 item 16 (Text source); TASK 40 units A/C/D; TASK 32–36; TASK 12 master limiter — queued.
-- If the alert box is STILL blank after this fix + relaunch: the new logs make the failure
-  conclusive (look for `Alert clip start:` → `Alert clip decode failed` → `Alert clip end:`). The
-  creator's Live scene also has a WebSource "Web Resource-0" bottom-right — confirm which element
-  they watch when describing the "stream-alerts layer".
+- If the alert box is STILL "no video" after this fix + relaunch: check the 12:35-style
+  `Alert clip end: … frames=240` line (now logged) — a healthy decode with no visual means the
+  painter/render path, not the decoder; the creator's Live scene also has a WebSource
+  "Web Resource-0" bottom-right — confirm which element they watch when describing the
+  "web-alert / stream-alerts" box.
 - The known pump stall (`render=full-render … totalMs=147`, ~6fps worst) is recorded as a
   pre-existing perf item, NOT part of this unit.
 
@@ -75,17 +88,15 @@ is a promise — degrade on dead-air, and a `catch` hiding WHY output vanished i
   from `liveChat/messages.insert` = wrong body shape (missing `snippet.type`).
 - TASK 47 sticky facts: bgra from ffmpeg is opaque (alpha=255); audio pipe = carry-buffer loop;
   default clip = `%TEMP%\ytLive-alert-{id}.mp4`; decoder per-play; DB stays `user_version 10`.
-- ChatOverlayLayer.OnMessageReceived marshals the poller seam; AlertOverlayLayer mirrors it; the
-  no-frame fallback lives in Advance (has the 1 s grace + diagnostics).
 - Every committed change needs a **close + relaunch** of the running app to be seen.
 
 ## Next step
 
 1. Commit this unit with the declared scope
-   `./scripts/scope-check.sh "Services/AlertOverlayLayer.cs" "Services/AlertClipDecoder.cs" "ytLive.Tests/AlertLayerVideoTests.cs"`.
-2. Push the three local commits at the creator's go / milestone signal.
-3. Creator to relaunch and re-run the repro (compare the 11:21 vs 11:44 behavior) — the new logs
-   will say exactly what the decoder did.
+   `./scripts/scope-check.sh "ViewModels/MainViewModel.Chat.cs" "ytLive.Tests/AlertClipDecoderTests.cs"`.
+2. Push the four local commits at the creator's go / milestone signal.
+3. Creator to relaunch and re-run the repro — with the probe wired the clip plays real-time
+   (~10s of motion, not a blur + frozen frame); the `Alert clip end:` line confirms decode health.
 
 ## Critical working rules (unchanged, still binding)
 
diff --git a/MyMistakes.md b/MyMistakes.md
index 56fd13f..4af7278 100644
--- a/MyMistakes.md
+++ b/MyMistakes.md
@@ -908,3 +908,18 @@ frame/chunk end-state AND the exception it swallowed. Rules for every future gam
 (2) any producer that yields zero output inside a grace becomes a fallback trigger, not a wait;
 (3) one integration test per rescue: `SilentDecoder_FallsBackToTheAnimationAfterTheNoFrameGrace`
 pins transparent→fell-back→renders→drains.
+
+The pacing half that this entry flagged came true the same day: the 12:35 session showed a FULLY
+HEALTHY decoder (`frames=240 audioChunks=156 failed=False`, alert audio in the mix) and the creator
+still saw "no video / you lost the video". The clip played at ~240× for a second then froze on the
+last frame: `AlertClipDecoderFor` passed no `frameRateProbe`, so `RunVideoAsync`'s pace
+(`if (frameDuration > 0)`) was dead code while the audio chunk-pacer ran real-time. LESSON, sharper
+than the whole fallback saga: **a decoder that drops data faster than wall-clock looks identical to a
+dead decoder on screen — "plays but you don't see it" is a PACING bug before it's a decode bug.**
+A healthy pipeline still needs an explicit pace per stream; never ship a pipe whose `frameDuration`
+can be `TimeSpan.Zero`. Fix: the alert factory passes `FfmpegFrameRateProbe` exactly like the media
+path does (MainViewModel.cs:308). Verify-by-seam once, everywhere: the same fake-process +
+fake-probe delay-recorder test now pins real-time video pacing
+(`AlertClipDecoderTests.AlertClipDecoder_PacesVideoFramesToTheProbedFrameRate`). Rule added to the
+list above: (4) if output arrives but the USER still reports no/motionless picture, check pacing
+before decode — count the bytes/s against wall-clock, don't re-audit the codec.
diff --git a/TASKS/task-47-alert-videos.md b/TASKS/task-47-alert-videos.md
index 2672c56..1c34772 100644
--- a/TASKS/task-47-alert-videos.md
+++ b/TASKS/task-47-alert-videos.md
@@ -177,6 +177,34 @@ idle. This lands the corpus at 321, with the one known-env flake (RealMouseDrag
 passes with no fullscreen windows up) — unrelated to this change. Unit was the direct
 lineage of bug surface: **a decoder booth production failure surfaces as dead air.**
 
+## Video-frame pacing fix (2026-09-26)
+
+Second creator repro after the fallback commit (12:35 session): decoder HEALTHY —
+`Alert clip start: box …` → `Alert clip end: … frames=240 audioChunks=156 failed=False`
+twice, alert audio in the live mix (`peakMix 0.277 → 0.733`, mic/loop 0.000) — yet
+"no video plays in the web-alert box", "like you lost the video". The hole was never
+decode: **the video pipe was unpaced.** `AlertClipDecoderFor` (MainViewModel.Chat.cs:113)
+built the decoder with no `frameRateProbe`, so `RunAsync` computed
+`frameDuration = TimeSpan.Zero` and `RunVideoAsync`'s pace (`if (frameDuration > 0)`)
+was skipped — all 240 frames (a 10s, 680×200 clip, ~130MB) dumped through the pipe in
+the first ~1-2s as fast as ffmpeg read them, then the box sat on the LAST frame frozen
+for the remaining ~6-8s while the audio chunk-pacer (50ms/chunk × 156) ran out its
+real-time cadence. To the eye: a blur then a dead frame = "no video / you lost the
+video". The media path already wired exactly this seam (`MediaVideoSource` gets
+`frameRateProbe: new FfmpegFrameRateProbe(…)`, MainViewModel.cs:308) — the alert
+factory just never supplied one.
+
+Fix (commit `…`): `AlertClipDecoderFor` now passes
+`frameRateProbe: new FfmpegFrameRateProbe(new FfmpegLocator(), () => new FfmpegDecodeProcess())`
+so the 240 frames pace at the clip's native ~24fps (10s real-time), matching the audio
+cadence. Good Dog test `AlertClipDecoderTests.AlertClipDecoder_PacesVideoFramesToTheProbedFrameRate`
+drives the REAL `AlertClipDecoder` through the same fake-process/fake-probe seam the
+media test uses (3 frames, probe 100fps → one ~10ms pacing delay per frame) — red on
+the old factory (no delay), green with a probe. Full suite 321/322, one known-env flake
+(RealMouseDrag reorder). **Derivative lesson → `MyMistakes.md`: a decoder that reads
+faster than wall-clock needs an explicit pace; "plays but you don't see it" is pacing,
+not decode.**
+
 ## Open follow-ups (NOT this unit)
 
 - TASK 3 item 20 (RewardEvent SQLite persistence half) and item 16 (Text source) remain
diff --git a/ViewModels/MainViewModel.Chat.cs b/ViewModels/MainViewModel.Chat.cs
index aec2b58..496671d 100644
--- a/ViewModels/MainViewModel.Chat.cs
+++ b/ViewModels/MainViewModel.Chat.cs
@@ -109,9 +109,15 @@ public partial class MainViewModel : ViewModelBase
 
     /// <summary>One decoder per play (the refcounted MediaVideoSourceManager sessions
     /// can't restart per replay). The clip is full-box in video + 48k stereo audio;
-    /// both steams pace themselves to real time inside the decoder.</summary>
+    /// both steams pace themselves to real time inside the decoder — the frame-rate
+    /// probe is what makes the VIDEO pace (without it every frame dumps in ~1-2s and
+    /// the box freezes on the last frame for the rest of the audio).</summary>
     private IAlertClipDecoder AlertClipDecoderFor(string path, int width, int height) =>
-        new AlertClipDecoder(path, width, height, new FfmpegLocator(), () => new FfmpegDecodeProcess());
+        new AlertClipDecoder(
+            path, width, height,
+            new FfmpegLocator(),
+            () => new FfmpegDecodeProcess(),
+            frameRateProbe: new FfmpegFrameRateProbe(new FfmpegLocator(), () => new FfmpegDecodeProcess()));
 
     /// <summary>Stamp the shipped llama placeholder into the Asset table at startup
     /// (idempotent — hash-keyed UpsertAsset dedupes). Best-effort: if it fails the
diff --git a/ytLive.Tests/AlertClipDecoderTests.cs b/ytLive.Tests/AlertClipDecoderTests.cs
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..f5168e5
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ytLive.Tests/AlertClipDecoderTests.cs
@@ -0,0 +1,79 @@
+using System;
+using System.Collections.Generic;
+using System.Diagnostics;
+using System.IO;
+using System.Threading;
+using System.Threading.Tasks;
+using Xunit;
+using ytLive.Services;
+using ytLive.Services.Encoder;
+
+namespace ytLive.Tests;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// TASK 47 Good Dog: the alert clip decoder paces VIDEO to real time via the
+/// frame-rate probe. The 2026-09-26 live failure was a healthy decoder whose
+/// frames all dumped in the first ~1-2s (no probe = no pacing), leaving the box
+/// frozen on the last frame while the audio ran its ~8s — read as "no video
+/// plays". This drives the REAL <see cref="AlertClipDecoder"/> against a fake
+/// process + probe and records the pacing delay it requests per frame (the same
+/// seam the media path's decoder test uses — the repo never runs a real codec).
+/// </summary>
+public class AlertClipDecoderTests
+{
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task AlertClipDecoder_PacesVideoFramesToTheProbedFrameRate()
+    {
+        const int w = 1, h = 1; // frame bytes = 4
+        var payload = new byte[12]; // three frames
+        var delays = new List<TimeSpan>();
+
+        using var decoder = new AlertClipDecoder(
+            "clip.mp4", w, h,
+            new FakeLocator(),
+            () => new FakeDecodeProcess(payload),
+            frameRateProbe: new FakeFrameRateProbe(100.0),
+            delay: (t, _) => { delays.Add(t); return Task.CompletedTask; });
+
+        var forwarded = 0;
+        var completed = new TaskCompletionSource<bool>(TaskCreationOptions.RunContinuationsAsynchronously);
+        decoder.FrameAvailable += _ => forwarded++;
+        decoder.Completed += () => completed.TrySetResult(true);
+
+        decoder.Start();
+        await completed.Task.WaitAsync(TimeSpan.FromSeconds(5));
+
+        Assert.Equal(3, forwarded);
+        // One pacing delay per emitted frame, each = 1/100s (the probed rate).
+        Assert.Equal(forwarded, delays.Count);
+        foreach (var d in delays)
+            Assert.True(Math.Abs((d - TimeSpan.FromMilliseconds(10)).TotalMilliseconds) < 0.001,
+                $"expected ~10ms, got {d.TotalMilliseconds}ms");
+    }
+
+    private sealed class FakeDecodeProcess : IDecodeProcess
+    {
+        private readonly MemoryStream _stream;
+        public FakeDecodeProcess(byte[] bytes) => _stream = new MemoryStream(bytes);
+        public void Start(ProcessStartInfo startInfo) { }
+        public Stream StandardOutput => _stream;
+        public bool HasExited => _stream.Position >= _stream.Length;
+        public int ExitCode => 0;
+        public void Kill() { }
+        public Task WaitForExitAsync(CancellationToken ct = default) => Task.CompletedTask;
+        public void Dispose() => _stream.Dispose();
+    }
+
+    private sealed class FakeFrameRateProbe : IFrameRateProbe
+    {
+        private readonly double _fps;
+        public FakeFrameRateProbe(double fps) => _fps = fps;
+        public Task<double?> ProbeAsync(string path, CancellationToken ct = default)
+            => Task.FromResult<double?>(_fps);
+    }
+
+    private sealed class FakeLocator : IFfmpegLocator
+    {
+        public Task<string> LocateAsync(CancellationToken ct = default) => Task.FromResult("ffmpeg.exe");
+    }
+}
\ No newline at end of file