docs: purge the dead $29/$49 + Polar model from every tracked file, add the Y1 forecast

The pricing ruling landed twice (2026-09-21 one-time, then 2026-09-27 Store IAP
$10/mo + $400 lifetime) and the map never caught up. Six tracked files still told
a future session that billing was Polar and the price was $29/$49. A stale memory
map is worse than a stale comment: it is the file every session trusts, and this
one was actively steering work toward a deleted provider.

MONETIZATION.md (gitignored, so not in this commit) was rebuilt first:
- "Revenue projections" now carries a modelled Year 1 forecast —
  pessimistic $4.0K / base $15.4K / optimistic $53.3K net, ~$22K weighted.
  Funnel is installs -> 35-45% activate -> 1.5-3% of active users pay.
- Three findings recorded: Year 1 is ~97% lifetime transactions (subs net $392
  of $15.4K, so MRR is not a Year-1 planning input); conversion dominates price
  (~1pp of conversion = ~$7K net, and ADA 6(h) locks $10 anyway); subscriber
  churn moves Year 1 by under $200 and is a Year-2 problem.
- Break-even restated for $400: $25K net = 74 lifetime buyers, not 862.
  The price cut the volume requirement ~10x and raised the skill requirement
  to match.
- Market sizing willingness-to-pay row rewritten. The 100K-400K TAM was
  price-bound to $29-49 and is wrong at $400; revised ~20K-60K, flagged as an
  estimate rather than a sourced number.
- Flagged a real contradiction: $500K ARR needs ~4,900 concurrent subscribers,
  so the Exit section's ARR multiples do not describe what Years 1-3 produce.
  The defensible asset there is lifetime cash flow, not ARR.

Tracked files corrected to match:
- ai.md: paid-delta, pricing and billing bullets rewritten; Polar product id,
  org id, LCYT- key prefix and LLAMAFOUNDER/LLAMA50 marked as deleted;
  15% share + net-after-tax recorded with the ADA 6(b)(i) citation.
- TASKS.md: catalog row retitled as a teardown; the "still to verify — the
  price is not decided" note closed (it contradicted the ruling 20 lines
  below it); the OverlayHost "Polar unlocks alerts" open question marked
  resolved; Polar file-hosting deliverable removed from the release build.
- task-10: reframed as a teardown. Steps 4-5 marked as surviving, 1-2-3-6-7 as
  deleting, 8 as a compliance action (Velopack downloads AND executes, which
  Store policy 10.2.2 does not permit).
- task-36 item 5 (license-expiry reminders) struck — no key, no expiry, no
  lapse under Store IAP, so there is nothing to remind anyone about.
- Distribution.md 4.2 / 4.4 / 4.5 marked obsolete; 4.5's "already implemented"
  corrected, since PolarLicenseService is being deleted rather than shipped.
- README: "one-time license" -> "paid tier".

Historical Polar sections are retained deliberately — the reasoning is reusable
(merchant-of-record, fee comparison), only the conclusions are dead. Each is now
labelled so it cannot be mistaken for the plan.

No code touched.

TASKS.md

@@ -29,7 +29,7 @@
 | 07 | Meter scaling amplification | ✅ Done | [`TASKS/task-07-meter-scaling.md`](TASKS/task-07-meter-scaling.md) |
 | 08 | Audio milestone | ✅ SHIPPED 2026-08-14 | [`TASKS/task-08-audio-milestone.md`](TASKS/task-08-audio-milestone.md) |
 | 09 | YouTube Live Stream Management | ⏳ In progress — items 1–3, 4 shipped; item 5 open; item 6 locked (TASK 36) | [`TASKS/task-09-live-stream-management.md`](TASKS/task-09-live-stream-management.md) |
-| 10 | Monetization: watermark-only one-time license + Polar billing | 🔶 In progress — steps 1–7 shipped; **now a TEARDOWN: Polar is deleted in favour of Store IAP (2026-09-27)** | [`TASKS/task-10-monetization.md`](TASKS/task-10-monetization.md) |
+| 10 | Monetization: watermark-only paid delta (branding flash) | 🔶 **TEARDOWN, not a build** — Polar deleted in favour of Store IAP (2026-09-27); `$10/mo` + `$400` lifetime, no annual | [`TASKS/task-10-monetization.md`](TASKS/task-10-monetization.md) |
 | 11 | Post-pause polish batch (creator's 8 review issues) | ✅ SHIPPED 2026-08-15 | [`TASKS/task-11-polish-batch.md`](TASKS/task-11-polish-batch.md) |
 | 12 | Master limiter on the live mix | ☐ Queued | [`TASKS/task-12-master-limiter.md`](TASKS/task-12-master-limiter.md) |
 | 13 | Social media launch kit | 🔶 Scoped — queued after v1 | [`TASKS/task-13-social-launch-kit.md`](TASKS/task-13-social-launch-kit.md) |
@@ -120,8 +120,9 @@ second encoder path needing a "redirect". Record+simulcast is one ffmpeg with tw
 - **Shipping / release build (creator-queued 2026-09-26)** — no publish config exists yet:
   the csproj has only `OutputType=WinExe` + `TargetFramework`, so a plain `dotnet publish`
   is **framework-dependent** (customer needs the .NET 8 Desktop Runtime preinstalled).
-  `Distribution.md` targets a self-contained ~80–120MB `LlamaCasty.exe` uploaded to Polar
-  as a File Download benefit. Two deliverables:
+  `Distribution.md` targets a self-contained ~80–120MB `LlamaCasty.exe`. ⛔ **The Polar
+  File-Download benefit is dead** — the Store hosts and updates the app, so there is no upload
+  step (TASK 48). Two deliverables:
   1. **`scripts/publish.sh`** wrapping
      `dotnet publish ytLive.csproj -c Release -r win-x64 --self-contained true -o ./publish/win-x64`,
      and **asserting the output contains no test/xunit artifacts**. (The compile side needs
@@ -235,9 +236,12 @@ second encoder path needing a "redirect". Record+simulcast is one ffmpeg with tw
   - **Unchanged:** the watermarks posture. Free gets everything; the branding flash stays the
     ONLY paid delta (TASK 36 item 2). Store IAP changes how the bit is *obtained*, never what
     it *gates*.
-  - **Still to verify (does not block packaging):** current Store revenue-share terms — ⚠️ do
-    not assume any percentage, verify before setting a price; and the one-time vs
-    subscription shape of the IAP tier (the storefront is decided, the price is not).
+  - **Both formerly-open questions are now CLOSED (2026-09-27).** Store revenue share is
+    **verified at 15%, subscriptions included** (ADA v8.10 §6(b)(i) — read from the PDF, not a
+    search excerpt), and the IAP tier shape is **decided: `$10/mo` subscription + `$400`
+    lifetime, no annual**, declared in Partner Center as two products. Full detail in
+    `TASKS/task-48-distribution-msix.md` item 0. ⚠️ Do **not** re-open the fee question without
+    re-reading the ADA, and do not *assume* 15% if the terms ever move.
   - **✅ item 1 SHIPPED 2026-09-28 — bundle ffmpeg instead of downloading it.** The app no
     longer fetches an executable at runtime (Store policy 10.2.2, and the pin 404'd on the
     creator's first real recording on 2026-09-01). `scripts/fetch-ffmpeg.sh` populates a
@@ -310,8 +314,10 @@ second encoder path needing a "redirect". Record+simulcast is one ffmpeg with tw
 - Still queued from earlier: `scripts/publish.sh` (self-contained win-x64, no test artifacts,
   Debug-only `InternalsVisibleTo`, no WPF trimming), and the `LlamaCasty.exe` assembly rename
   (three pack URIs incl. `MainWindow.xaml:14` — do not rename `%APPDATA%\ytLlive`).
-- Decide the open business question: `OverlayHost.xaml` copy says Polar unlocks *alerts* too, but
-  alerts are not gated by `IsPremium`. Either fix the copy or gate the alerts — do not leave it.
+- ✅ **RESOLVED — do not re-open.** The `OverlayHost.xaml` copy claimed Polar unlocked *alerts*;
+  alerts were never gated by `IsPremium`. The file is **deleted outright** by the TASK 10 teardown
+  (TASK 48 item 0), so the copy is gone with it. The "or gate the alerts" option is **permanently
+  closed** — there is no feature gating, ever.
 
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